Taming Buffalo: A Quick Look at this Sunday's Patriots vs. Bills

Here is everything you need to know about the 1-2 Patriot’s offense, defense and special teams as they head into their tough matchup with 2-1 Buffalo. Yes, that is right, I said tough.

Patriot’s Offense

Because of Buffalo’s ability to successfully rush the passer, I expect New England to line up in their shotgun formation and use quick throws and draw plays to take pressure off Tom Brady. In addition, I believe New England will look to establish their run game early—something they failed to do last week in Baltimore. This strategy will take pressure off New England’s developing offensive line, as well as take advantage of Buffalo’s slightly porous run defense.

The Bill’s entire defensive line could represent the AFC in the Pro Bowl. It has that much potential. Lining up primarily in a four-man front, they will try to force Brady to throw into a plethora of Bill’s defenders (much like he had to do against the Jets and Giants in past playoff games).

Buffalo’s line consists of newly signed free agents, defensive end and former Patriot Mark Anderson (5 tkles, 1 sk, 1 pass defended) and former Texan Mario Williams (5 tkles, 1.5 sks, 1 pass defended), defensive tackles Chris Kelsey (2 tkles), Kyle Williams (6 tkles, 3 sks), Alex Carrington and Buffalo’s first-round pick in the 2011 draft Marcell Dareus (1.5 sks).

Although the Patriots handled a tough Raven's defensive line last week, they will face just as much difficulty against the Bills. Many believe Buffalo has been building their defense specifically to beat Tom Brady’s offense. If you look at the Bill's recent drafts, you can see why others feel the same way. Along with their aforementioned defensive line, other notables include linebackers Nick Barnett and Kelvin Sheppard and homegrown defensive backs, 2008 1st round choice Leois McKelvin and 2012 1st round choice Stephon Gilmore (10 tackles and 2 assists in 3 starts).

Patriot’s Defense

The Bill's offense will do what they do best—spread out the opposition and attack through the air. In the team's two meetings last year, New England used their sub-defense approximately 90% of the time. (A sub-defense uses extra defensive backs to defend against the pass.)

When formerly asked about the league's increasing trend to pass the ball, Belichick may have foreshadowed last year's offseason plans by hinting that the best way to stop the aerial assault is to have enough fast, athletic players. In last year’s NFL draft, the Patriots drafted almost all defensive players, many of whom seem to have that “athletic” build. The Bills will test the Patriot's athleticism.

Although Buffalo’s Wide Receivers Steve Johnson (13 rec, 172 yds, 3 tds) and Donald Jones (8 rec, 113 yds, 2 tds) will put Patriot’s cornerbacks Devin McCourty and Kyle Arrington to work, they are not the only weapons New England’s defense must contain.

The Bills will run the ball out of wildcat and bootleg formations. After all, they did not snatch up former Jet’s receiver/quarterback Brad Smith for no reason last year. Expect the Bills to try and establish the run with Fred Jackson or Tashard Choice (20 att, 91 yds last week), which will tighten the Patriot’s secondary and give Steve Johnson an opportunity to exploit a still suspect Patriot’s secondary.

Finally, the Patriots must generate a better pass rush. Thus far, I am not sold on Rob Ninkovich’s pass rush or his ability to set the edge against the run. Teams have sacked quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick only once and knocked him down a mere eight times through the first three games.

Patriot’s Special Teams

With Patriot’s wide receiver/return specialist Julian Edelmen possibly out for Sunday’s matchup, the Patriots are thin in their return game. Yes, Devin McCourty, Wes Welker and Mathew Slatter have return experience, but none have been solid contributors. (Devin McCourty has the most yards per kickoff return at 24.5.)

Moreover, the Bills present a challenge with special-teams ace and wide receiver/quarterback Brad Smith, as well as Leodis McLevin (6 ret, 178 yds, 1 td on punt returns).